Looking At The Changes In Kambi's Rumble Elimination Odds

As mentioned this afternoon, the Kambi oddsmakers have reinstalled their betting markets for the 2017 WWE Royal Rumble. Along with the regular outright winner odds is a list where customers can bet on the wrestler that delivers the most eliminations a week from Sunday.

This market had been available previous to today, so - in this post - I'll look at today's odds and compare them to how they were over a month ago.

In a post published last night, I pointed out that - in my opinion - there are only two names worth backing in this sort of market. They are Braun Strowman and Samoa Joe.

The odds for both wrestlers are now shorter than they had been. Strowman is now 1/2 from EVENS while Samoa Joe has been slashed from 10/1 to 3/1.

Joe's price readjustment could be due to the report that was published last week by the Wrestling Observer Newsletter stating that there is a plan for Joe to be in 'one of the top few' matches at WrestleMania. The newsletter's owner and editor, Dave Meltzer, suggested that one way to bring Joe up to the main roster is to have him debut at the Royal Rumble and have a good showing.

I feel that, if Braun Strowman is booked to win the Royal Rumble, then Joe should be the guy who eliminates the most entrants. If, on the other hand, the plan is for Samoa Joe to walk out of San Antonio as Royal Rumble winner, they should give Strowman the most eliminations.

Now, if the plan is for someone other than Samoa Joe or Braun Strowman to win the battle royal, then it would obviously be a toss-up. I placed a bet on Samoa Joe a few weeks ago, but this doesn't mean I would not be surprised if Strowman gets the distinction.

The other names that have had their prices lowered are Baron Corbin, The Undertaker, Cesaro, Bray Wyatt and Shinsuke Nakamura.

Of the five, I can't see why Cesaro would get the most eliminations.

Baron Corbin could benefit from having the most eliminations and they could play up he was the 2016 winner of the Andre the Giant Memorial Trophy. His place in third in this market makes a lot of sense to me.

Bray Wyatt's price lowering could be a reaction to customers guessing that he could be one of the wrestler's who leaves WrestleMania as WWE World Champion.

My theory behind Shinsuke Nakamura's price shortening is simple - his price has been moved him down because the current NXT Champions is defending his title against Bobby Roode at NXT TakeOver on the eve of the Rumble. If he loses the NXT Title, I could see punters concluding that he'll show up the following night at the Rumble and - just like with Joe - have a good showing in the match. I'm not sold on Nakamura being brought up yet. He absolutely should, but I think he'll remain with NXT for the time being. 

As for The Undertaker - well, he's The Undertaker and will always see his backers in props like this. 

The most prominent jumps - Roman Reigns 4/1 to 25/1, Kevin Owens 15/1 to 25/1, AJ Styles 20/1 to 25/1 and John Cena 10/1 to 25/1 - are because all four wrestlers are locked in to the title matches on the card. There's always a slight chance that the losing side of each bout could end up being in the Rumble, but I doubt it. 

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in a little over a week.

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