The market in question is an over/under where clients can bet whether or not the fatal four-way lasts around twenty minutes.
When it was first installed, the bookie had '19:59 or Under' at 10/11 while the 'Over 19:59' was at 8/11. The first sign of action came on the under as the bookies slashed it to 8/11 and moved 'Over' up to EVENS.
And this is when I came in.
As soon as I saw the even money, I decided that - despite there being signs that the match could potentially go short (a long PPV where matches could overrun) - I would stick to an idea that won for me earlier this summer when I backed the over in the fatal five-way match at Extreme Rules.
The Extreme Rules theory was to take the over because of the amount of talent in the match. I figured that the producers would give the bout enough time for all of the stars to make something of the match.
After placing the bet and writing about it in this post, I noticed - hours later - that the over once again became a favourite. It was slashed into 4/7 and has remained that way ever since.
Date/Time
|
19:59 and Under
|
Over 19:59
|
Thurs 5:35pm
|
10/11
|
8/11
|
Fri 12:00am
|
8/11
|
EVS
|
Fri 6:35pm
|
6/5
|
4/7
|
Sat 10:15pm
|
6/5
|
4/7
|
One of my favourite markets on WWE pay-per-view weekends are the time props that the Kambi oddsmakers release. I like the challenge of trying to figure out what time the trader will put up before the markets go live and I was very happy to see what they had for this particular match.
Kambi's line is 26.50. This is obviously six-and-a-half minutes more than I need for the Paddy Power / Betfair wager to hit. It was one of the lines I would point out in my Time Prop Posts and write that it's 'a 'tough call'. On this occasion, I am glad Kambi's time is a tough call because I have 6:30 minutes leeway with my bet.
I know there are a few of you out there who are against this idea and believe it'll go under. There's no argument from me on that one. It's going to be a very long night and the main event could end up having to lose some minutes, but I guess that's why they call it gambling.
I'm unsure whether I'll get another chance to publish a post about this market before tomorrow night, so - if not - good luck to all.
Whichever side you're on.
I backed the under 26.5 minutes as soon as I saw it. Even Lesnar Vs Undertaker didn't go longer then that.
ReplyDelete