In this post, I'll go through each of the markets and point out how the odds have changed when compared with this morning.
Braun Strowman .vs. Kevin Owens
Of the four matches that have the 'Method of Victory' specials, the one for Braun Strowman's Money in the Bank briefcase defence against Kevin Owens is still showing the same pricing as yesterday.
The bookies have 'Pinfall' as a 1/4 favourite. This is followed by Disqualification 5/1, Count Out 9/1 and Submission 20/1.
As I've written in previous posts where I've covered and discussed this match, I think the fact that WWE has pointed out that Strowman could lose the match by DQ or Count Out has been done for fans to believe there is a chance of Owens winning the contract as it's the only likely way he could beat Strowman. To me, Pinfall is the correct favourite. I haven't bet on it, though.
Alexa Bliss .vs. Ronda Rousey
Another match I haven't placed a bet on is the one for the WWE Raw Women's Championship. On paper, it should be a Ronda Rousey win. However, I can't shake off the feeling that there will be some sort of decision that will result in Rousey once again not becoming champion.
One idea a friend of mine came up with is for Rousey to have Bliss in the armbar and to refuse to give up the hold and for the result to be a disqualification victory for Bliss. If they aren't going to have Rousey as the champion yet, I could see this happening as it will allow for Rousey to 'lose' without losing.
I guess they could also have Stephanie McMahon interfere to cost Ronda from claiming the title and give Rousey the win by disqualification. The problem with this result is we've already seen Rousey win a title match by DQ.
And on top of that, Rousey failing to win the big one yet again could be damaging.
Whatever the result, I have a feeling we will get to see Alexa Bliss with her shoulder hanging out of its socket - a thing she can do because she's double-jointed (or something!).
As for the betting, the customers have backed the favourite - Submission - as it has moved in from 5/6 to 8/11.
The DQ option has increased from 11/2 to 6/1. The other selections - Pinfall (7/4) and Count Out (20/1) - are unchanged.
AJ Styles .vs. Samoa Joe
If you've been following along whenever I've written about SummerSlam, you would have surely read that I believe Samoa Joe has to win against AJ Styles.
When discussing Joe's promo from Smackdown with somebody the other day, they told me they had a feeling that - after Joe mentioned Styles' family - that it might become too personal and he felt that the bout could potentially end in a disqualification.
A DQ in favour of Samoa Joe that is!
I liked the idea and backed the selection when it was 6/1 at 10:30AM yesterday morning. It was cut to 5s shortly after that and is now down to 4/1 as of 10:30AM today.
A disqualification win for Styles will also work in my favour. It would, however, be a bittersweet victory as I would really like to see Joe crowned as champion.
As you can see from the betting, with the 'Disqualification' option moving in, the bookies have increased Count Out (20/1 to 22/1) and Submission (11/8 to 13/8). The 'Pinfall' has stalled at EVS.
If Joe is winning, doing so by submission would make sense if Styles refuses to quit and passes out. Similar markets from Kambi consider passing out as a submission. The same rule applies to Sky Bet's Method of Victory specials.
Brock Lesnar .vs. Roman Reigns
Here's one where I do the 'On Paper' thing yet again because - On paper, Roman Reigns pinning Brock Lesnar to win the WWE Universal Championship makes the most sense to me.
As you can see by the odds, a pinfall is - on paper - the result that makes the sense to the bookies as well considering it's a 1/10 favourite.
When I was writing down the odds yesterday, I saw 'Submission' at 20/1 and 'Count Out' at 22/1 and thought I'd take a longshot gamble on both.
A 'Count Out' win for Roman Reigns, would be a lame finish. It would, however, keep the strap on Lesnar and be somewhat of a surprise considering people are expecting Reigns to be crowned on August 19th.
Even though it's still a longshot, I think a 'Submission' victory has a better chance. Reigns forcing Lesnar to tap out - before he challenges for the UFC Heavyweight Championship - is sure to have crossed some minds in WWE. As I said, it's a longshot and will be even more of a longshot if Samoa Joe wins via submission earlier in the night, but I thought was worth a sly bet at 20s. The odds have since been cut to 16/1.
Prices correct as of 10:30AM BST. These specials are found under the respective match markets on Sky Bet's pages for SummerSlam.
My opinion.
ReplyDeleteOnly way KO can win is if Corbin attacks him to get Strowman DQ'd. We have seen Strowman get counted out already so that's not happening again.
With Alexa vs. Ronda. Ronda has to win. You cant keep putting her in title matches and end up with screwy finishes which result in Ronda not winning the title as you are damaging her stock. It's obvious that Ronda will be champ at some point so there's no point delaying it time after time.
AJ vs Joe. DQ could be a very shrewd bet David. After Joe mentioned AJ's kids I can't see him leaving as Champion but we know this feud is continuing at HIAC so I think there is a chance AJ gets DQ'd. Doubt it as I expect Joe to dominate the majority of this match but there is a chance of a DQ even though it would make AJ look weak.
For what it's worth I think AJ rolls up Joe for the win after Joe dominates the match. That way Joe looks very strong in defeat and it allows the feud to continue.
Roman vs Brock.
No chance of a submission finish as Brock would change the planned finish himself if the script said he has to tap out. Plus WWE wouldn't disrespect Brock by ending the match with him tapping out as it's a slap in the face to him if I'm being honest.
Yeah Darryl, I also don't see Joe winning at Summerslam. When ever a heel targets family, bsbyface wins most of the times.
DeleteYou really think AJ vs Joe will end in disqualification. I mean AJ's title run already had two BS finishes at Backlash and GRR.
ReplyDeleteAlso do you think they will a DQ finish at a big PPV like Summerslam ?
I wrote that I think Samoa Joe should win the match and that my friend came up with the idea that - because it's personal between Joe and Styles - that he thought a DQ finish would be cool. I liked the idea and the odds, so had a speculative punt.
DeleteStyles .vs. Joe isn't the main event. Look back at other world title matches on the semi-main and undercard of past SummerSlams. Disqualifications have happened before.
WWE has just released the HIAC poster.
ReplyDeleteAJ is on the poster and Joe isn't.
Also the advertising said AJ defending the WWE Championship against Samoa Joe therefore I think it comes down to 2 possible endings.
1. David's bet (DQ Finish)
2. My prediction that Joe dominates the match and AJ scores a lucky win allowing the feud to continue.
Either way with the poster, advertising and Joe mentioning AJ's kids I cant see Joe leaving Brooklyn as Champion.
Another interesting thing about the poster is that Asuka is on the cover.
The arena for this weeks SDLive is advertising Carmella vs Asuka in a singles match.
I expect Asuka to win this match then get added to the SummerSlam match and finally wins the SD Women's Championship.
I like how there's not one mention of Charlotte Flair being on the HIAC poster as well.
DeleteAlso - no Joe, Owens or Strowman...
DeleteI didn't mention Charlotte Flair because you expect her to be on the majority of posters. She's the female Roman Reigns. If any women are to be on posters then Charlotte's name would be first on the list everytime Champion or not.
ReplyDeleteI mentioned Asuka because it was a surprise to see her on the poster after the Carmella feud. Then I read about the Arena hosting Tuesday's SDLive was advertising Carmella vs. Asuka and came to a conclusion that Asuka could leave Brooklyn as Champ once she beats Carmella and get's added to the SummerSlam match.
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DeleteDavid Taylor4 August 2018 at 21:01
DeleteWhy isn't the number two babyface Braun Strowman on the poster?
I don't know why David lol. Like I said I mentioned Asuka because it was a surprise to see her on the poster.
DeleteI really do think you're reading too much into these things.
DeleteiF Asuka ends up in that match, my head will explode at the booking as Charlotte/Becky with Carmella and the title writes itself. Asuka would be a spare wheel.
What I would like to see - if this match really does happen and the stip is as you are guessing - is for Becky to cost Asuka a chance to enter the title match.
I could be.
DeleteIf Asuka's in the match then I think she's winning. If she doesn't win at SS then WWE may as well release her and let her go back to Japan. It's last chance saloon time with Asuka. That Carmella feud done massive damage to Asuka's main roster career. If Asuka turned heel then she would still need the Championship otherwise the heel turn would be pointless. Unlike Nakamura there is no fall back title in the Women's division.
Then Asuka would just cost Becky at SummerSlam and every fan would just sit there waiting for the obvious to happen.
I also think Ronda - Alexa might end in DQ finish or count out victory. It seems to me that Ronda might win the title at Evolution and Ronda isn't on the cover of HIAC.
ReplyDeleteIf Ronda doesn’t win the title at SummerSlam, I think she takes it at Mania which is what sh should have done in the first place following a year-long road to the championship.
DeleteI have a feeling we’ll get Ronda vs Natalya or Stephanie at Evolution.
So, that means Ronda might win the Royal Rumble and face Charlotte for Smackdown women's title.
DeleteI actually thought that Charlotte would win Royal Rumble and face Ronda for Raw women's title at Wrestlemania
If the brand split still exists by then, Ronda has to be on Smackdown by autumn 2019, so that would be one way to move her over.
DeleteYeah with Smackdown being on Fox next year, I think some big names from Raw will go to smackdown
DeleteThe Fox contract doesn't start until October 4th 2019 so I doubt Vince would send Ronda over to SD in early April.
DeleteRumours that the brand split maybe ending as well.
I'm with David I think we get Ronda vs Natalya at Evolution however its for the RAW Women's Championship.
I think Alexa will face a legend like Trish in a one off match at Evolution.