How Kambi's TLC 2018 WON Star Ratings Markets Were Settled

This week's issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter has been published. This edition includes Dave Meltzer's review of last weekend's WWE Tables, Ladders and Chairs 2018 PPV. Its release means that the Kambi oddsmakers' Observer Star Ratings markets for the event have been settled.

In the days heading into the show, the bookies published a handful of specials that allowed their customers to bet on what they thought would be the highest rated match in Meltzer's review, how many stars the highest rated match received, a head-to-head market where customers could bet on which of two opposing matches they felt would get the most stars and an plethora of Over/Under markets where customers could bet on - or against - the predicted line that was drawn up by the oddsmaker.

I'll start off with a look at how the Over/Under markets and then cover the other specials.

Over/Unders

As is often the case, the bookies wrote up Over/Under markets for all of the matches that were scheduled for the show. The customers were given the opportunity to bet on Dave Meltzer reviewing the particular match Over, Under or Exactly on the predicted line.

Buddy Murphy .vs. Cedric Alexander
The Cruiserweight Championship match - which saw Buddy Murphy successfully retain the title against former champ, Cedric Alexander - was given three-and-a-half stars by Meltzer. It fell below Kambi's line of 3.75 stars.

Cruiserweight Championship	Over 3.75 Stars	Exactly 3.75 Stars	Under 3.75 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	9/10	2/1	11/10
16/12 5:30PM	4/5	21/10	6/5

The winning selection was 11/10 to start off with, but drifted out to 6/5 by Sunday evening due to punters backing the 'Over' from 9/10 into 4/5.

Bobby Lashley .vs. Elias

The line for the ladder match, won by Elias, was set at two-and-a-quarter stars. As you can see in the table below, the 'Under' dropped from 7/10 into 11/20 between the first day and Sunday evening.

Elias .vs. Lashley	Over 2.25 Stars	Exactly 2.25 Stars	Under 2.25 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	27/20	21/10	7/10
16/12 5:30PM	31/20	23/10	11/20

The action was evidently on the right side as Meltzer gave the match two stars.

Carmella and R-Truth .vs. Alicia Fox and Jinder Mahal
The Mixed Match Challenge final was given one-and-a-half stars in the review. This fell a quarter of a star below the line.

Mixed Match Challenge Final	Over 1.25 Stars	Exactly 1.25 Stars	Under 1.25 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	EVS	13/5	4/5

The winning selection was a 4/5 favourite throughout the weekend.

WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship
The WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship match - which saw The Bar retain over The Usos and The New Day - had a line of 3.75 Stars. The betting appeared to side on the Over as it was cut from 6/5 into 21/20.

Smackdown Tags	Over 3.75 Stars	Exactly 3.75 Stars	Under 3.75 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	6/5	21/10	4/5
16/12 5:30PM	21/20	2/1	19/20

The rating fell under Kambi's line. The winning selection was moved out to 19/20 from 4/5.

Braun Strowman .vs. Baron Corbin
Going in - we knew that Braun Strowman was limited following elbow surgery, so it was surprising to see Kambi had given the TLC match a line of 2.25 stars.

Strowman .vs. Corbin	Over 2.25 Stars	Exactly 2.25 Stars	Under 2.25 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	5/4	23/10	7/10
16/12 5:30PM	2/1	5/2	2/5
16/12 11:15PM	9/4	13/5	1/3

I backed the 'Under' when it was 7/10. I felt it would either go under or the 'match' would end up being unrated and the bet would therefore end up voided. Others evidently felt the same about the line being too high as the selection was 2/5 by early Sunday evening and was a shorter 1/3 in the hour leading into the PPV.

The match was indeed rated. It was given one star by the editor.

Natalya .vs. Ruby Riott

The tables match, which was won by Natalya, was graded two stars in the review. This was another one in favour of the 'Under' as the line was 2.25.

Natalya .vs. Ruby Riott	Over 2.25 Stars	Exactly 2.25 Stars	Under 2.25 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	6/5	21/10	4/5

The eventual winning selection was a 4/5 favourite throughout the weekend.

Finn Balor .vs. Drew McIntyre

Kambi set the line for the Finn Balor versus Drew McIntyre match at three-and-a-half stars. By Sunday evening, the 'Under' had dipped from 4/5 into 3/4.

Balor .vs. McIntyre	Over 3.5 Stars	Exactly 3.5 Stars	Under 3.5 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	5/4	2/1	4/5
16/12 5:30PM	13/10	41/20	3/4

The match did indeed fall below the line. It received three-and-a-quarter.

Rey Mysterio .vs. Randy Orton

The 'Under' was the winning selection in the market for the chairs match between Rey Mysterio and Randy Orton. Kambi set the line at 3.25, but Dave Meltzer felt the match was 'not good at all' and gave it one-and-a-half.

Mysterio .vs. Orton	Over 3.25 Stars	Exactly 3.25 Stars	Under 3.25 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	19/20	2/1	21/20
16/12 5:30PM	17/20	41/20	23/20

As the table shows, the eventual winner went from 21/20 to 23/20 due to the 'Over' coming in from 19/20 into 17/20.

Ronda Rousey .vs. Nia Jax

The WWE Raw Women's Championship match was given a line of 3.5 Stars. I surmise this was because the pair's last match on PPV was given this rating. Sunday's meeting exceeded the one at Money in the Bank 2018 by quarter of a star.

Raw Women	Over 3.5 Stars	Exactly 3.5 Stars	Under 3.5 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	7/5	11/5	13/20
16/12 5:30PM	6/4	9/4	3/5

The 'Over' went from 7/5 to 6/4 due to the 'Under' falling from 13/20 to 3/5.

Daniel Bryan .vs. AJ Styles

The bookies and Dave Meltzer had high hopes that the WWE Championship would be the match of the night. The line was set at 4.25 Stars and - on Sunday - Meltzer said, on his podcast, that he was optimistic that the match would do better than the line.

The betting also indicated a belief the bout could beat the line as the 'Over' was backed from 19/20 into 4/5.

WWE Championship	Over 4.25 Stars	Exactly 4.25 Stars	Under 4.25 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	19/20	19/10	11/10
16/12 5:30PM	4/5	2/1	5/4

And they were right.

The match was rated four-and-three-quarters. 

Seth Rollins .vs. Dean Ambrose

The Intercontinental Championship match had a line of 3.75 Stars when it was published on Saturday. Meltzer noted that the line was 'fair' on Sunday. He reluctantly went with the match going over because he felt Seth Rollins would have the motivation to try and do better than AJ Styles and Daniel Bryan. The punters evidently thought it had a chance of going over as well. The odds dipped from 4/5 into 3/4 on Sunday.

IC Title	Over 3.75 Stars	Exactly 3.75 Stars	Under 3.75 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	4/5	2/1	5/4
16/12 5:30PM	3/4	41/20	13/10

The winning pick turned out to be the 'Under' as the match was given three stars.

WWE Smackdown Women's Championship

The main event, which saw Asuka become WWE Smackdown Women's Champion in a triple threat TLC match against Becky Lynch and Charlotte Flair received four-and-a-half stars from Dave Meltzer.

Smackdown Women	Over 4.25 Stars	Exactly 4.25 Stars	Under 4.25 Stars
15/12 12:00PM	9/10	19/10	23/20

The bookies had set the line at 4.25, so the winning selection was the 'Over' that was 9/10 through the weekend.

Exact Star Rating Of Highest Rated Match Betting

The market where customers could have bet on the exact star rating of the highest rated match of the night went to the '4.75 Stars or More' selection. It was a 9/4 joint-second favourite when the market was installed. It remained that way throughout the weekend.

Highest Rated Match 

As I'm sure you've figured out, the winning selection in the market where customers could place bets on the match that received the most stars was the WWE Championship contest between Daniel Bryan and AJ Styles.

The three-and-three-quarters ensured those that backed the match from 7/4 into 6/4 by 6PM GMT on Sunday will have their wagers settled in the black.

Head-to-Head

A market where customers could bet on Daniel Bryan versus AJ Styles receiving more stars than the WWE Smackdown Women's Championship contest - and vice versa - has been settled in favour of the former.

It was close. The difference was a quarter of a star, but the betting evidently backed the correct side as the winner was snipped from 19/20 into 9/10.

As I wrote in the comments section of Sunday's post, I had a feeling the two matches would tie and backed the 'Same Amount'. 

After watching the PPV, I felt my bet had a chance. I even told a couple of people that I felt that - if it were to lose - it would be by quarter of a star. However - I thought the Smackdown Women's Championship match would end up sneaking the win.

And that's all for now. Hopefully, I'll be back next year with coverage of Kambi's Observer lines and markets for the Royal Rumble.