A Dive Into BetOnline's WrestleMania XL Markets

With it being a little over three days away from the first night of this year's WrestleMania. It's about time for me to go through all of the price adjustments I have been able to record from the BetOnline website for the past few months.

In this post, I'll go through each match using the potential match order that was reported by Dave Meltzer a couple of days ago. 

Night 1

Women's World Championship
The market for Rhea Ripley's defence of the Women's World Championship has been available since late January. At the time I first began following the betting, Ripley was a -300 favourite over the +200 for Becky Lynch.

Every adjustment has sided with the titleholder because Ripley has since fallen into -500. Her challenger is now up to +300.

Six-Pack Tag Team Ladder Match for the WWE Tag Team Championship
BetOnline does not have a market for this match which - based on how it has been advertised on TV - could end up with the Undisputed WWE Tag Team Championship split up once again.

Santos Escobar and Dominik Mysterio .vs. Rey Mysterio and Dragon Lee
Betting on this tag team match, which will see Santos Escobar and Dominik Mysterio face off against Latino World Order members Rey Mysterio and Dragon Lee, opened a couple of days ago with the heels favoured. Their price has dipped from -200 into -250.

A win for Rey Mysterio and Dragon Lee is currently priced at +170. That is up from the earliest price I saw of +150.

Jey Uso .vs. Jimmy Uso
When the market for the battle between The Usos was first installed, BetOnline had Jey as a heavy favourite with a price of -1,000 to his brother's +500. A few days after that, I noticed Jimmy's odds had been shortened to +200 and then - on Monday of this week - they had dipped into +170.

Jey is now a -250 fave, but - going by the betting - the punters evidently seem to be siding with the Bloodline member and that makes sense if the weekend is going to see a Bloodline sweep leading into the main event of night two.

Bianca Belair, Jade Cargill and Naomi .vs. Damage CTRL
The market for this trios match was available when I checked into the BetOnline website on Monday. The team of Bianca Belair, Jade Cargill and Naomi are -2,000 faves. The Damage CTRL members are +700.

WWE Intercontinental Championship
The BetOnline oddsmakers were hanging both Gunther and Sami Zayn out at -120 pick 'ems when I first came across the market for the Intercontinental Championship match on March 12th. 

As you'll see, the early moves came in for the titleholder, Gunther, because his odds had dropped into -300 a day after I started following the market. The selection was then cut into -500. 

The most recent bunch of adjustments have sided with Sami Zayn because his odds have descended from +300 into +110 between March 15th and this afternoon.

I strongly believe the most recent dip could be attributed to the report of this match being in the semi-main event slot of night one.

If the show is closing with Roman Reigns and The Rock going over (and I expect it will), then the feelgood story of the night could be the babyface winning the IC Strap in the bout ahead of the main event.

Before the match placement was reported, I suspected Chad Gable would involve himself in the match and cost Zayn the win. If this bout does end in the position it's reportedly in, I believe it's a positive for Zayn.

Roman Reigns and The Rock .vs. Cody Rhodes and Seth Rollins
As I wrote on March 9th, I was very surprised to see BetOnline had initially placed Roman Reigns and The Rock as underdogs for the night one main event.

The stipulation that - should the Bloodline team members win - the night two main event will allow for outside interference stacks the odds against Cody Rhodes. 

That should have been enough to hand Reigns and Rock favouritism in the market for night one's contest.

The wagering has been one-sided with the early underdogs now, unsurprisingly, down into -1,000.

On the other side of the market, Cody Rhodes and Seth Rollins have been pushed out from -300 faves to +550 dogs.

Night 2

World Heavyweight Championship
The market for Drew McIntyre's challenge of the World Heavyweight Championship was priced up shortly after the Scot won the Elimination Chamber in late-February.

At the time I began following the wagering, McIntyre was -260 while the champ - Seth Rollins - was +180.

All of the early price drops sided with McIntyre. His odds fell from the aforementioned -260 into -800 within the first three weeks of wagering. Then, within the last week, his odds have slightly moved up. The challenger currently has a price of -600.

When McIntyre's price was on the decline, Rollins' price rose to +425. However, the most recent market adjustments have seen the selection for the champion to successfully retain dip into +350.

Philadelphia Street Fight
A market for the Philadelphia Street Fight was first installed earlier this week. The market hasn't changed since I noted Bobby Lashley and The Street Profits as -200 faves over The Final Testament (+150).

LA Knight .vs. AJ Styles
The first price changes I witnessed for LA Knight .vs. AJ Styles sided with Knight. His price was halved from -500 within the first two days of following the market. As a result, Styles' price was pushed out to +500 from +300.

Since then, however, the wagers appear to have sided with the underdog because a win for Styles has now been trimmed into +350.

Knight remains a fave. However, his odds are now at -600.

US Championship Triple Threat
BetOnline's market for Logan Paul's defence of the WWE United States Championship against Randy Orton and Kevin Owens had the champ a -200 fave on March 16th. Then, two nights later, that price had dropped into -400 while Orton and Owens went from +180 to +250 and +650 to +1,400 respectively.

On March 19th, I noticed Owens' price had dropped into +900. It was then at +800 this past Saturday and had been halved from that when I checked in the following afternoon.

March 19th also saw Paul's odds move into -500, however. They have since moved to -450 following the evident gambles coming in on Kevin Owens.

A win for Randy Orton is currently priced at +425. His selection is the only one - of the three - that has either moved out or stalled while the Paul and Owens offerings have fluctuated.

WWE Women's Championship
2024 Women's Royal Rumble winner, Bayley, was a -500 favourite to get a win over Iyo Sky when their market was installed in the days following the Rumble. By Valentine's Day, Bayley's price had plummeted into -1,500 while the WWE Women's Champion had drifted out to +650.

With all that noted, the most recent price drops have sided with Sky because her odds have fallen from the +650 into +400 between February 27th and Monday of this week.

Remember what I wrote about believing the position of Gunther .vs. Sami Zayn on the night one card could be a benefit to those looking to gamble on Zayn because I believe the heels will win the main event of night two? Well, a somewhat similar theory applies to this match.

If Cody Rhodes is winning the main event of night two, then Bayley coming up short in the semi-main makes sense to me. Even more if her loss is through outside interference. Bayley not winning in that manner, ahead of the main event, does well to sell the story of Cody's win if the audience have already seen a babyface challenger fall due to having the odds stacked against them from outside forces.

Undisputed WWE Universal Championship
As you can see, in the table below, there have been moments - in the wagering for the night two main event - where the challengers' price has shortened. You can also see moments when gambles on Roman Reigns appear to have been made.

The bottom line is this: Cody Rhodes has been the bookmakers' favourite since the market was first priced up following the 2024 Royal Rumble. #

However, both selections have shorter prices today than they did back on January 30th.

A victory for Cody Rhodes is currently priced at -425. Those looking for the upset can currently pick Reigns up at +265.

If you had visited the market at the start, you would have found Rhodes at -550 to the champion's +325.

This post will now be used to refer back when I write about further adjustments heading into - and during - the weekend.

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