Monday, 9 April 2018

If. Done. Correctly.

'..we should really be at least a year off from even guessing when Asuka's streak will come to an end. If done correctly, WWE could have a huge match for WrestleMania 35 if it stays its course'

I wrote the above on September 22nd 2017. I repeated it on October 11th, October 26th, November 26th and nearly every other time I wrote about Kambi's Asuka Conqueror markets because I thought WWE had a dream match in its hands if Asuka's undefeated streak was carried into 2019.

I thought the WrestleMania 35 main event would feature two streaks on the line - Asuka's and Ronda Rousey's. I even mentioned yesterday that I had placed a bet on the match headlining next year's Mania.

But then WrestleMania's Smackdown Women's Championship match happened.

Charlotte Flair ended Asuka's streak in one of many shocks that took place on last night's card.

I've given out both good and bad ideas in the past. Believing Asuka's streak should continue beyond WrestleMania 34 will now have to be graded as a bad idea even though I am adamant that - if done correctly - it could have been something big to set up the thirty-fifth WrestleMania.

Last night's result means that the winning selections in Kambi's Asuka Conqueror markets were 'Charlotte Flair' and 'WrestleMania 34'.

Charlotte had started off as a 2/1 second-favourite to 'No Defeat Until After WrestleMania 34' when the market was first installed last September.

Asuka Conqueror Betting
Click on image to expand

With Charlotte on Smackdown and Asuka over on Raw, the odds for Flair being the person who scored a decision over the Empress of Tomorrow drifted out. This mainly happened as a result of the rumours that Ronda Rousey would win the Royal Rumble and challenge Asuka for Raw's championship.

As we now know, Rousey didn't win the Rumble and Asuka didn't become WWE Raw Women's Champion. Instead, Asuka won the Rumble and went on to challenge Charlotte for Smackdown's title.

The last time the conqueror market was available, Flair was 4/1 to end the streak before today's cut-off - 'On First Day After WrestleMania 34 Or Later'.

Asuka Conqueror Betting
Click on image to expand

As you can see in the table above the option to bet on Asuka's defeat occuring at WrestleMania started off at 6/4 in September. By February, the selection was 3/1.

In a post published yesterday, I mentioned that new Conqueror markets have been published for the year ahead. I'll write about them later in the week.


  1. Great but very bizarre mania.
    First women's royal rumble winner losing at mania?
    Asuka losing cleanly at her first mania after a massive undefeated streak?
    Braun and a kid being on after the WWE title match??? (Worst booking I've seen in a while, it's almost like WWE couldn't think of what to do. Braun taking both titles by himself would have been better imo).
    Like 6 F5s to put reigns down? After he beat everyone with a single f5 for the past year? Wow, okay then.

    There's more but overall I enjoyed it just strange decisions were made.

    1. I was saying to somebody either last night or during WrestleMania (the last few days have been a blur!) but Asuka not winning the Championship after being the first women's Royal Rumble victor is going to end up being an interesting stat note come January.

    2. I wrote this when I was tired last night and forgot the other decisions I found weird-

      - Both rumble winners losing clean.
      - Rusev was only added to the us title match to take the fall to Jinder? Ouch.
      - WWE still continuing this weird Bray Wyatt/Matt storyline... It's beating a dead horse at this point. Let me guess, Bray betrays Matt at somepoint down the line?

      I'm probably missing others but there was also some great moments and some really enjoyable matches. The entrances were great for most of them (Seth!!!). The stage looked great too.

      Also David, on another note, is this the strangest Wrestlemania betting-wise there has ever been or atleast in recent years? So many underdogs etc.

    3. Yep, was the strangest betting-wise since I've been following betting.
      My friend and I worked out that Mahal may have been the longest priced winner since we've been doing this, but I need to look into this to know for sure.

      You forgot to mention these:

      The Cena build and everything that happened during the show (to be fair, we had been going on about it in email before Mania, but Sunday was even worse!)

      Goldust not winning the battle royal ha.

    4. Hahaha noooo Goldust!!!

      After seeing Matt's odds fall it was looking sort-of clear he was going to win.

      Oh yeah Cena/Undertaker. Completely pointless. It was great to see Taker again, but just seeing him "work" one event and only for 10 minutes at most isn't great. He should have retired after Reigns. As much as we wanted Cena/Taker, this is definitely not how we wanted it.

      Cena running up the ramp was funny though haha.

  2. Little of top, but

    Do you know William Hill plans about PPV-s this year? Will they cover Greates Rumble, Backlash? or they know allow bets only on big shows, like RR and WM?

    1. Okay, so this isn't guaranteed as things can change at any point but here's what I was told regarding some of your questions.

      - They are looking to publish markets for all the future PPVs until at least the end of 2018 (they review whether to continue this form of betting at the close of every year). However, it's unlikely that the B-level shows will have the in-play specials etc. This will be saved for the major events.

      - Odds for these PPVs will likely be available Saturdays or maybe even Sunday mornings for the B-level shows

      - The Greatest Royal Rumble is possible, but this depends on other sportsbooks releasing odds as well.

    2. Thanks!

      For me its important news, because in my country is not possible to play in some sportbooks.

    3. Depends on other sportsbooks as in they intend to just copy the prices as usual?

      So brave of them.

    4. Yep, very brave of the first bookmaker to ever price up WWF/E betting odds here in Europe...

    5. The past isn't really relevant to this question though, is it.

    6. Okay, here's a recent example.

      Batista to appear at Mania:

      Kambi had it at 1/2, Paddy Power has 2s. William Hill priced it at 4s.

  3. Carmella finally cashes in!!! Paddy power bet finally comes in after a looooong time haha. Just waiting for it to settle now.

    1. Cannot wait to write today's post covering it.


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