Wednesday, 11 September 2019

KOTR 2019 Betting: After Week 4

We now know who will compete in the final of the King of the Ring tournament after this week's editions of WWE Monday Night Raw and WWE Smackdown contested two semi-final matches.

As I have been doing for the last four weeks, I'll go over all of Kambi's tournament markets to see how this week's results affected the props and specials. Before I do this, however, I have to tie up a couple of lose ends from last week's results.

Some Things I Missed Last Week
With Andrade being eliminated from the tournament on last week's episode of Smackdown, I forgot to cover a couple of prop bets that would have been settled from that result.

The first was a proposition which allowed customers to wager on Andrade being Smackdown's representative in the final.

When the 'Finalist From Smackdown' prop was first installed on August 21st, the 'Yes' was a 7/10 favourite while the 'No' was EVENS.

As you'll see in the table below, the customers evidently backed the 'Yes' as it was down to 13/25 within the first four days and was then at 1/3 on August 28th.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Andrade Smackdown Finalist Prop Bet

The winning selection went from the aforementioned EVS right up to 2/1 in the week it was available.

Another Andrade prop I failed to write about in last week's post was for a Yes/No on him being the 'Tournament Winner'.

This market was put up on Wednesday August 28th and remained stationary all the way through to its closure on Monday September 2nd.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Andrade Tournament Winner Prop Bet

The winning selection turned out to be the 'No', which was a 13/25 favourite.

Now, onto the results from this week's Raw and Smackdown.

Baron Corbin beats Samoa Joe and Ricochet
A couple of sports betting websites had winner markets for the triple threat match. Baron Corbin was a 4/6 favourite when Kambi closed its markets at 5:00PM BST on Monday evening. Sky Bet's market was available right up until 11:00PM that night and had Corbin closing as an 8/11 fave.

Baron Corbin's win means that he was the winning selection in a betting market in which customers could have bet on the person who had the 'Best Finishing Position From Raw'.

All of the representatives from the red brand appeared in the market. The eventual winner opened at 33/20 on August 16th, but was moved to 2/1 when the market was republished the following week (after the brackets were announced).

He closed as an 11/10 joint-favourite with Ricochet, whose price was declining leading up to his quarter final meeting with Samoa Joe.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Best Finishing Position From Raw

The market was not republished for this week's show. This is obviously because there was a match market for the semi-final.

Another market that was taken down on September 2nd and didn't come back was a prop in which customers could bet on Baron Corbin being the 'Finalist From Raw'. This was similar to the one that was available for Andrade to be Smackdown's representative in the final that I wrote about above.

As you can see, the eventual winning selection - 'Yes' - had started out at even money when it was first priced up. It rose to 27/25 after the 'No' was backed from 7/10 into 4/6 before August 30th.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Baron Corbin A Finalist From Raw? Prop Bet

Corbin passing through Samoa Joe and Ricochet now means that a few 'Stage of Elimination' specials markets were settled as well.

Before the tournament bracket was revealed on Friday August 16th, Kambi had a 'Stage of Elimination' market for Samoa Joe with three options. They were 'Eliminated in Round 1', 'Eliminated in Quarter or Semi Final' and 'Reaches Final'. The market was taken down shortly after WWE revealed its bracket, but any early bettors who took the middle option covering a quarter or semi-final departure will have their bets settled in their favour at odds of 3/4.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Samoa Joe's Stage of Elimination (1st Version)

A refreshed market was published on Thursday August 22nd with the bookie offering Joe's elimination occurring in the 'Quarter Final', 'Semi Final' or to be one of the finalists. The eventual winning selection of 'Eliminated in Semi Final' was 13/5 throughout.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Samoa Joe's Stage of Elimination (2nd Version)

Ricochet's 'Stage of Elimination' market was first published on August 16th and, unlike the other markets in this category, it was not changed once Kambi became aware of the brackets.

In the Ricochet special, the options were 'Quarter Finals or Before', 'Semi-Final or Losing Finalist' or 'Tournament Winner'.

As you'll see in the table below, the winning selection was 4/9 when it was first published. Its best price was the 9/4 it had drifted out to by August 24th.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Ricochet's Stage of Elimination

The closing favourite was the first option and this would be because the punters felt that Drew McIntyre would eliminate Ricochet in the first round.

Chad Gable Progresses To Final
The scheduled semi-final of Chad Gable .vs. Elias did not happen as Elias was ruled out due to injury. His replacement turned out to be Shane McMahon, which was quite a coincidence to me as - while drafting up the most recent 'My Bracket' post - one of the ideas I scrapped was Shane McMahon replacing Elias and progressing to the final to meet Ricochet.
With the scheduled bout not taking place as advertised, any match market for Gable .vs. Elias would be voided.

The rules of Kambi's 'Stage of Elimination' markets stated that the 'bet refers to the exact stage of where the listed participant is eliminated from the competition'. Therefore, with Elias qualifying past the quarter final stage and not participating in the semi-final, I believe the correct call is that he was eliminated in the semi-final stage even though he did not wrestle in this round.

There were two 'Stage of Elimination' markets for Elias. The first came out on August 16th and it's safe to say there isn't any grey area as to how that one will be settled as it will be the option titled 'Quarter or Semi Final', which was 19/20.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Stage of Elias' Elimination

The refreshed market offered 'Quarter Final', 'Semi Final' and 'Reaches Final' as the three options. The winning selection should be the 3/1 for the semi final elimination.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Stage of Elias' Elimination Version 2

Gable being Smackdown's finalist means that his selection wins the 'Best Finishing Position From Smackdown' special.

WWE King of the Ring 2019 Betting: Best Finishing Position From Smackdown

Gable had started out at 17/1 when the market was first installed on August 16th. The market was taken down at 5:00PM BST on Monday September 2nd and - at the time - the eventual winner was 6/1. This is mainly because his quarter final opponent - Andrade - was a favourite to win their match and ultimately go on to represent Smackdown in the final.

I'm reluctant to write about other markets like the 'Exact Combination of Finalists' until I've seen how the final plays out, so I'll write about that one in the final part of this series, which will be published next week.

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