Saturday, 5 October 2019

Pro Wrestling TV Ratings Prop Bet Results: September 30 to October 4 2019

All of the TV ratings for this past week's professional wrestling shows have now been released. In the post below, I've looked at all of the Raw, NXT, AEW Dynamite and Smackdown ratings specials/props that were published by Kambi.

September 30th's Raw Rating Comes In has released the cable TV ratings for the night of September 30th and it was a decent(ish) result for WWE Monday Night Raw from a betting perspective.

As covered in previous posts about Kambi's WWE Betting markets, the oddsmakers had one prop bet that was specific only to Raw's rating. 

The prop asked customers to bet whether or not the show would draw a total average audience of 2.4 Million. 

It was first published over the weekend. Customers were offered the 'Yes' at 19/20 the 'No' was 3/4. The selections remained stationary right up to the market's close on Monday night.

The winning selection turned out to be the option that covered the show getting 2.4 Million or more as the average turned out to be 2,569,667.

WWE Raw on USA Network TV Rating Prop Bet For September 30 2019

The breakdown went like this:

WWE Raw Ratings Result For September 30th 2019

The result of Raw is also important for other proposition markets that were available for this week's TV. These will be revealed as this post continues and as more ratings come in.

AEW's Preview Show Does Decent Number
The AEW preview show, which aired on Tuesday night, had an audience of 631,000. There were obviously no betting markets available for this programme, but it is worth mentioning. It should give some hope to those who have backed AEW to perform well.

AEW Dynamite Debut On TNT Gets 1,409,000
As mentioned earlier this evening (this part of the post is being written on Thursday October 3rd), has released the TV ratings from Wednesday night and AEW Dynamite had an audience of 1,409,000 over its two hours. 

In the aforementioned post, I wrote about about the result of a specials market in which customers could bet on one of three groups of ratings. It wasn't the only special Kambi released that was specific only to AEW's rating.

A proposition market was published. In it, customers could have bet whether AEW Dynamite would get an audience of 1.25 Million or more. 

The 'Yes' started off as a 3/4 favourite to the 'No' at 19/20, but - as you can see below - the gamblers, myself included, felt that the show would fall below that number and therefore began to decline. It was down to 13/25 by the time the market was closed yesterday evening.

AEW Dynamite Debut On TNT Prop Bet

The winning selection had risen to 13/10 by Sunday evening and remained at this price right up to last night.

Customers also had the opportunity to gamble on AEW Dynamite having a higher audience than Monday's episode of WWE Monday Night Raw in a market titled 'Conquering The Flagship'.

As noted above, going by's table, Raw's number was 2,569,667. Therefore, AEW was short. This means that the favourite - 'No' - which started off at 11/25 on September 8th, but was all the way down to 1/14 by lunchtime this past Monday, was the winning selection.

AEW Dynamite Debut On TNT Prop Bet - Will It Do Better Than Raw?

There are more AEW ratings specials, but I need to cover the NXT one before I get to them.

NXT On USA Network Has An Audience Of 891,000
AEW was the winner of Wednesday's first head-to-head clash between the two groups because NXT's rating has been recorded at 891,000.

The result means that a proposition in which customers were asked to bet whether or not the show had 1 Million or more will be settled with the 'No' as the winning selection. 

It opened as a 9/10 outsider on September 8th. The 'Yes' was backed early on, but its opposition slid down in the latter part of September. 

On Monday afternoon, I noticed the eventual winner had been moved to 13/10. This was after 'Yes' decreased from 3/5 into 13/25. 

NXT TV Ratings Prop Bets - Will The October 2nd 2019 Episode Get 1 Million Viewers?

We've established that AEW won the first battle of the Wednesday Night War. Therefore, the market titled 'Conqueror of Wednesday' will settle with the 'Yes' winning as a closing 7/10 favourite.

In it, customers were asked whether AEW would have more viewers than NXT in their first head-to-head.

'Yes' had started off at 11/20 to the 'No' at 5/4. The early wagering went the way of the eventual losing selection as it's price descended to 9/10 by September 23rd. 

The wagers coming in on the 'No' saw its opposition rise from the opening 11/20 to 4/5 and despite a couple of moments when it was snipped, it ended up closing at 7/10 on Monday.

AEW .vs. NXT TV Ratings Betting: Winner Of Week 1

A second AEW .vs. NXT proposition asked the punter to gamble whether or not AEW would end up having an audience of 350,000 or more over its opposition.

The 'No' was the gamblers' choice as the selection plummeted from 4/5 into 1/4 between September 8th and the day of the shows.

A little bit of working out shows that AEW did indeed have an audience of 350,000 plus over its Wednesday night opponent. The actual difference was 518,000.

AEW .vs. NXT Ratings Special

Due to the gamblers expecting there not to be that much of a divide between the two shows, the eventual winner went from 9/10 right up to 5/2 in the time the market was available.

Another AEW .vs. NXT proposition was published this past weekend. In it, customers were asked whether AEW would dominate NXT in the 18-49 age group demographic.

The 'Yes' was an 11/25 favourite over the 'No' at 8/5.

In the breakdown, AEW scored a 0.68 to NXT's 0.32. 

TV Rating Betting: AEW .vs. NXT Demo Betting

The eventual winner was lowered to 2/5 by Tuesday lunchtime. It remained at this price right up to when the market closed later that day.

Smackdown's Ratings Come In published its TV Network Scorecard post for Friday's Network numbers on Saturday afternoon. It had a breakdown of Smackdown's ratings from its FOX debut.

The first hour had an audience of 3,920,000. There was a slight drop in the second hour as the audience was recorded at 3,818,000. 

Therefore, the average for both hours was 3,869,000.

Kambi had a lot of markets for Smackdown's rating. The first two came out in May. 

The first special was an Over/Under which was specific to the number the first hour received. The options were '5.5 Million or More' and 'Under 5.5 Million'.

TV Rating Betting: Smackdown On FOX 1st Hour Rating Odds

As you can see, the bookmakers had the eventual winning selection as a 7/10 favourite initially. The punters backed the selection all the way down to 11/25 in the months it was available. However, the moves only started to be made in August.  The market was last seen on September 2nd.

An Over/Under for the total average of the entire show was also created in May. There were three options - 'Under 4 Million', '4.00 - 4.99 Million' and '5 Million or More'. The winning selection was an even money favourite when the market was launched. It was backed down to 11/20 by late-August before closing entirely at the start of September.

TV Rating Betting: Smackdown On FOX Rating Odds

Both of those markets didn't return in September because Kambi's oddsmakers published all of the proposition markets for this week's TV. The one that was specific only to Smackdown's audience asked customers to bet whether or not the episode had 3.5 Million viewers or more. 

The 'Yes' selection was an even money outsider to the 7/10 for 'No'. However, within the first few days, it became clear that the bettors were siding with the number being below 3.5 Million as 'Yes' became a 9/10 favourite by September 12th.

It fell further from there and was cut into 13/25 yesterday evening.

TV Rating Betting: Smackdown On FOX Over/Under

There were more proposition markets that needed the Smackdown ratings results before they were graded.

One asked punters whether Smackdown would have 1.5 Million or more viewers than Monday's episode of Raw.

As we now know, Raw had 2,569,667 and Smackdown had an audience of 3,869,000. Therefore, the difference between the two shows was 1,299,333 and means that the winning selection turned out to be 'No'.

The winning selection started off at 4/6 on September 8th. It rose to 3/4 within the first four days and was then moved up to EVS by September 21st. It fell back to 3/4 a week later and returned to 4/6 on Wednesday afternoon following the release of the Raw rating on Tuesday night.

'No' fell for a final time yesterday afternoon when it was cut into 13/25.

TV Rating Betting: Smackdown On FOX Prop Bet

Another prop saw the Smackdown on FOX  rating going up against both of WWE's offerings on the USA Network. It asked customers whether Smackdown's audience would be higher than that for WWE Monday Night Raw and Wednesday's episode of NXT combined.

Therefore, we're looking at Smackdown's 3,869,000 versus the 3,460,667 the USA Network pulled (2,569,667 for Raw and 891,000 for NXT).

The winning selection was 17/20 to begin with. The early wagers appear to have landed on the correct side as, by September 28th, it had dropped to 8/13. After then, however, it appears as though the gamblers sided with FOX doing better than the two USA Network shows as the 'No' fell from 23/20 to 4/5 between September 28th and the day the market was permanently closed.

TV Rating Betting: Smackdown On FOX .vs. USA Network Prop Bet

Smackdown's audience was also up against the combined audience for Raw, NXT and AEW Dynamite in another market. This one was titled 'Total Conquest'.

Adding AEW Dynamite's 1,409,000 to the USA Network's 3,460,667 means that Smackdown's 3,869,000 competed against a combined average audience of 4,869,667. 

In short, Smackdown did not conquer its opposition.

The winning 'No' opened as a 2/5 favourite on September 8th and was snipped into 1/3 by the afternoon of September 28th. It remained at this price until the market was taken down on October 2nd.

TV Rating Betting: Smackdown On FOX Prop Bet

The final TV ratings prop for this week's TV asked customers to bet whether or not all four shows would do better than a number Kambi set.

When the market was first installed, the bookies asked customers whether Raw, NXT, Dynamite and Smackdown would have a total audience of 8 Million or more. The 'Yes' was EVS while the 'No' was a 7/10 favourite.

I would surmise either the punters sided with the 'No' or the bookmakers weren't getting any action on the market as the line was then taken down to 7.5 Million with both selections placed at 17/20.

Nine days after the line was changed, the 'Yes' was taken down to 7/10 and then - a week after that - the line was pushed back up to 8 Million. Both 'Yes' and 'No' were placed at 17/20.

By October 2nd, the 'Yes' once again fell from 17/20 to 7/10. This time, however, any wagers were obviously betting on the shows getting the 8 Million or more.

TV Rating Betting: September 30th to October 4th Combined Audience Betting

And that's all for this week's TV ratings betting coverage for this week. And what a week it was.

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