Saturday, 28 December 2019

Observer Star Ratings Prop Bets For Wrestling In 2020

It looks like the oddsmakers from Kambi have been busy over the festive period.

Not only have they published the new NJPW WrestleKingdom markets I wrote about yesterday, they've also created thirty Wrestling Observer Newsletter star rating proposition markets for 2020.

In this post, I'll run through ALL of the markets that were made available today.

1) Cole Tops Gargano
In this market, customers get to bet 'Yes' or 'No' on whether 'Adam Cole has more matches awarded 5 stars or more in 2020 than Johnny Gargano'.
As of this afternoon, 'No' is a 13/25 favourite over the 13/10 for 'Yes'.

2) Okada Tops Ibushi
This one is similar to the Cole/Gargano one. However, the punter is asked whether 'Kazuchika Okada has more matches awarded 5 stars or more in 2020 than Kota Ibushi.'
They have 'Yes' at 3/4 while those who believe Ibushi will get more matches of 5+ stars can find the 'No' at 19/20.

3) Omega Tops Naito
In this one, the gamble is on whether or not 'Kenny Omega has more matches awarded 5 stars or more in 2020 than Tetsuya Naito'.
The 'Yes' is 23/20 and the 'No' is 8/13.

4) AEW O/U: 3.5
Customers get to gamble whether '4 or more AEW men matches in 2020' will be awarded ratings of five or more stars.
The opening prices are 8/13 for 'Yes' and 23/20 for 'No'.

5) Adam Cole O/U: 1.5 Matches
In this Adam Cole special, customers have the opportunity to wager on the likelihood of Adam Cole featuring in '2 or more matches in 2020' that are 'awarded 5 stars or higher'.
'Yes' is 5/4 while the option to bet on Cole's not having more than one match rated five stars or above is 11/20.

6) Hiroshi Tanahashi O/U: 1.5 Matches
Just like with the Adam Cole O/U, customers have the opportunity to wager on Hiroshi Tanahashi's performance in 2020. Those who think he will have less than 2 matches rated five stars or above from Dave Meltzer can find the 'No' a 7/10 favourite. Those looking to bet on The Ace picking up at east two five star (or more) matches can back the 'Yes' at EVS.

7) Johnny Gargano O/U: 1.5 Matches
The same rules for the Cole and Tanahashi props apply to the one for Johnny Gargano. For the 'Yes' to win at 11/20, Gargano has to be in at least two matches rated five stars or more. If not, the 'No' will win at 5/4.

8) Kazuchika Okada O/U: 4.5 Matches
The line for the Okada prop has been set at 4.5 matches. Those who believe the current IWGP Heavyweight Champion will compete in at least five matches graded five stars or above can find the 'Yes' at 7/10. Those who believe he'll do less than that can find 'No' at EVS.

9) Kenny Omega O/U: 2.5 Matches
Kambi has Kenny Omega's line at 2.5, so those who believe he will be in at least three bouts that are rated five stars or more can back 'Yes' at 6/5. The 'No' is a 3/5 favourite.

10) Kota Ibushi O/U: 4.5 Matches
Gamblers who believe Kota Ibushi will appear in five or more matches rated five stars or more in 2020 can find the 'Yes' at 11/10 while the 'No' is 13/20.

11) NJPW O/U: 14.5 Matches
The proposition title '5+ Stars NJPW O/U 14.5' is about how New Japan - as a promotion - will accumulate matches of five stars or more in 2020. The line has been set at 14.5, so those who believe the company will have fifteen or more bouts rated 5+ can find the 'Yes' at EVS. Those who believe the line is set higher than their expectations for the company in 2020 can back the 'No' at 7/10.

12) NXT O/U: 3.5 Matches
The line for NXT's matches is set at 3.5 stars, so those who believe the company will have four or more bouts graded five stars or higher in 2020 can find the 'Yes' at 7/10 while the 'No' is a even-money outsider.

13) Tetsuya Naito O/U: 2.5 Matches
Back to wrestlers' performances and they've installed one for Tetsuya Naito. The line is two-and-a-half, so - those who believe Naito will be in three or more matches rated five stars or more in Dave Meltzer's reviews of 2020 - can find the 'Yes' at 19/20. The gamblers looking to bet on Naito having less than three matches rated five or above can find the 'No' at 3/4.

14) Tommaso Ciampa O/U: 0.5 Matches
Those who believe Tommaso Ciampa will be in at least one match given five stars or more in 2020 can find the 'Yes' at 13/20. Those who doubt he will can find 'No' at 11/10.

15) WWE Main Roster O/U: 0.5 Matches
Kambi has set a line of 0.5 stars for there to be a match rated five stars or more within the main roster of WWE in 2020. This excludes any NXT bouts. Those who would like to gamble on Dave Meltzer giving at least one match from WWE five stars or higher will find 'Yes' at 7/4. The option to bet on the guess that there will not be a five star match from the main roster in 2020 can find the 'No' at 2/5.

16) WWE Women O/U: 0.5 Matches
The prop titled '5+ Stars WWE Women' asks the gambler 'Any WWE women match (irrespective of brand) in 2020 to be awarded five stars or higher rating'. The 'Yes' is 7/4 and 'No' is 2/5.

17) Will Ospreay O/U: 5.5 Matches
The line for Will Ospreay's 2020 has been set at five-and-a-half matches. Those who believe he will have at least six bouts rated five stars or higher in Dave Meltzer's reviews will find the 'Yes' at 8/13. Those who believe the line might be set too high can find 'No' at 23/20.

18) AEW .vs. NXT: 5+ Stars Moneyline
In the 'AEW .vs. NXT - 5+ Star Moneyline' market, customers are asked to gamble whether or not AEW has 'more 2020 men matches rated 5 stars or higher than NXT 2020 men matches'. The NXT rule expands to NXT UK and any potential NXT's that are created in other territories. A tie will be settled in favour of 'No' as AEW would not have had more than NXT.
The 'Yes' is 27/25 while the 'No' is 4/6.

19) AEW .vs. NXT: Highest Rated
The rule of the 'AEW .vs. NXT: Highest Rated' asks the customers whether AEW's highest rated match of 2020 will be higher than the highest rated bout that's given to NXT. A tie will settled as 'No'.
Those looking to bet on AEW can find 'Yes' at EVS. A win for NXT, which will mean a decision for 'No', will pay out at 7/10.

20) Joint Highest Rated
In the prop titled 'Joint Highest' the punters are asked to gamble whether or not there will be a tie when it comes to matches that receive the most stars in a 2020 match review from Dave Meltzer. Those who believe '2 or more matches' will be 'awarded the highest 2020 rating' can find the 'Yes' at 3/4 while the 'No' is 19/20.
For what it's worth, 2019 saw three matches given the highest amount. This was 5.75.

21) Promotion Domination (NJPW)
The prop titled 'Promotion Domination' asks the gambler whether '70% or more of 2020 men matches rated 5 stars or higher' will be from New Japan Pro Wrestling.
Those who think NJPW will dominate can back 'Yes' as a 13/25 favourite. Those who believe NJPW will not reach 70% can find the 'No' at 13/10.

22) Records: 2019 Highest Match Rating To Be Broken In 2020
As I mentioned in the part in which I covered prop number 20, Dave Meltzer gave three matches five-and-three-quarter stars in 2019. In this prop, the customers have to gamble on that number being beaten in 2020.
Those who believe at least one match will get six stars or higher can find the 'Yes' at 4/5. Those who believe that the highest match will tie 2019 - or do below that - have the opportunity to wager on the 'No', which is 9/10.

23) Records: All-Time AEW Highest Rated Match To Be Broken In 2020
In this prop, customers are asked whether AEW's star ratings record (five-and-a-quarter stars for the Lucha Bros. versus Young Bucks bout from All Out) will be broken in 2020.
The 'Yes' is 13/10 and the 'No' is 11/10.

24) Records: All-Time NXT Highest Rated Match To Be Broken In 2020
Just like with the AEW Record proposition, customers can bet whether or not NXT's star ratings record will be broken in 2020.
The number to beat is the five-and-a-half stars that Johnny Gargano .vs. Adam Cole were awarded earlier this year.
For this market, 'Yes' is 6/5 while the 'No' is a 3/5 favourite.

25) Records: All-Time Participant Record In A Single Year Broken
I've edited the title of this prop only because it makes sense for this post. The rules are 'All--time matches rated 5 stars or more by a participant in a single year (9 by Kenny Omega in 2018) to be broken in 2020'.
Just to highlight how great a year 2018 was for Kenny Omega, the bookies have given 'Yes' long odds of 4/1. Those who don't expect one single wrestler to have ten or more matches rated five stars or above will find the 'No' at 1/8.

26) Records: All-Time Match Record In A Single Year Broken
Just like with prop 25, I've renamed the title of this prop to help when looking back. Here's how the rule is written though 'All-time single year total of matches awarded 5 stars or more (21 in 2018) to be broken in 2020'.
'Yes' is 11/10 and 'No' is a 13/20 favourite.

27) Historical Star Rating Record Is Broken In 2020
In this proposition, customers have the opportunity to gamble on 2020 having a match rated seven-and-a-quarter stars or higher as the current record is seven stars (Okada .vs. Omega at Dominion in 2018).
The odds for the 'No' are unsurprisingly short at 2/7. A win for 'Yes' will pay out at 9/4.

28) Streaks: Japan
The prop titled 'Streaks: Japan' notes that the Land of the Rising Sun has been the 'exclusive location of match rated highest of the year' since 2017. In this market, you're wagering whether or not the streak continues.
If Japan is the host country for the highest rated match/es of 2020, then the winning selection will be graded as 'Yes' at 4/11. If any other country gets there - or if there is a joint-highest alongside Japan - then the winning selection will be 'No' at 9/5.

29) Streaks: Kazuchika Okada
Kazuchika Okada has been in the highest rated match of each year since 2016. Kambi has created this prop asking customers whether this streak will continue in 2020.
The 'Yes' is a 1/2 favourite while the 'No' is 7/5.

30) Streaks: Kenny Omega
Just like with Okada, Kenny Omega has had a streak of being in Dave Meltzer's highest rated matches of the year since 2016. The Omega special asks customers whether his streak will continue in 2020.
Those who believe his name won't appear in the highest rated bout - or bouts - of 2020 will find 'No' as a 1/2 favourite. Those who would like to gamble on the streak continuing in 2020 can back 'Yes' at 7/5.

My Bets
Here are a few markets I've had a punt on after writing all the above out and thinking things through while doing so.

Bet 1: I'm siding with Omega NOT to top Naito in proposition 3. The 'No' is 8/13. I know Naito has not been the Naito from years ago, but what I thought was worth gambling on is the fact that Naito is going up against Ibushi or Okada a week from tomorrow and that has potential to be a strongly reviewed encounter.
What's also working against Omega here is he - unless something changes by the summer - will not be a participant in the G1 Climax. This should give Naito more of a chance to pick up a few more potential five star matches.
Also, due to AEW's PPV schedule, Naito should have more matches reviewed than Kenny Omega and that should help the bet's chances.

Bet 2: I've bet on Tommaso Ciampa to have over 0.5 matches rated five stars or more (Prop 14). I like the line being that low knowing that I only need one favourable review to win the bet. He's had strong ratings before his injury and will likely be chasing Adam Cole who himself has had great outings at NXT TakeOvers, so I thought it was worth a gamble.

Bet 3: Speaking of gambles -  I've placed a small wager on the WWE main roster having over 0.5 five star matches in 2020 (Prop 15). 7/4 was too appealing with guys like AJ Styles, Daniel Bryan and more on the roster.

Bet 4: I believe Kazuchika Okada has a chance of being in the highest rated match - or matches - of 2020, so have sided with 'Yes' in proposition 29 where you can bet on his streak of highly rated matches continuing.

Bet 5: For my final bet, I've gone with the 'No' in the 'Streaks: Kenny Omega' market (Prop 30). As I wrote above, I believe Tetsuya Naito will have a better year than him, so I thought I should expand on that thought and consider his streak of being in the highest rated match/es of the year ends in 2020.

There's nothing really special in those five markets as four of them are favourites - so I am in agreement with the bookmaker on those. The only one I'm betting against Kambi on is the main WWE roster having a match rated five stars or above. That's something we haven't seen since Cena versus Punk at Money in the Bank 2011, so it is a gamble.

No comments:

Post a comment

Thank you for reading this post. Please note: All comments are moderated and will be published or rejected at the blog owner’s discretion.

The comment section will be closed on most PPV Sundays.

To avoid any confusion, please ensure your comments are posted using a regular username rather than going 'Unknown'

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.