Cases For & Against Inside Betting On Battleground 2015

It has nearly been a week since Battleground and I'm still unsure whether we saw inside money come in during the late betting frenzy.

As many of you are aware, I set up WWELeaks.org two years ago. My main intention was to dispute the fact that someone within WWE was leaking information to Dolphins1925 and he or she was simply looking at the late betting swings to reveal their 'spoilers'. The trick has always been to see how the betting moves in the two hour period before the start of a PPV.

Granted, this method hasn't been as spot-on lately as the money has been coming in late. Also, there has been occasions where a selection hasn't covered.

This past weekend was peculiar as all the main card favourites became outsiders and vice versa. When I noticed the odds shifts, I was almost certain that we were in for some interesting results.

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If you're searching for definitive proof either way, I cannot guarantee you'll find it here. What I will do is throw out some arguments for and against the possibility that the swings had anything to do with inside action.

The Timing

As noted, the timing followed the trend where smart money begins to filter in a couple of hours before a PPV. However, the money had been coming in later than this recently.

Dogs to Favourites & Vice Versa

This one is interesting as it could be argued the changes had nothing to do with smart money, but more to do with bettors taking the odds (betting blindly on every underdog on the board).

The Main Event Odds

If the insiders knew the main event would end in a no contest, why did they bet on Seth Rollins winning? They would have known that Undertaker was going to be involved. If there was going to be a winner, the option to bet on should have been a Brock Lesnar win by disqualification. 

Insiders' Subterfuge

This is going further into conspiracy theory territory, but it is an idea that I think should be brought up.

What if the insiders bet on one selection to move the odds so they could come back later and take the actual winners at plus odds? They know that, as soon as their bets are placed, people will start jumping on the favourites. This will make the outsiders' odds more enticing, so they can come back in, place their stakes on the actual victor and come out with a good return from their investments.

Yes, it's a bit out there but is worth consideration.

Why No Odds In The High Thousands?

I don't blame you if you looked at Battleground's closing odds and decided smart money didn't come in because the prices didn't look as strong in contrast to previous PPVs where favourites' odds went far into the thousands. 

It's worth noting that the sportsbook had Battleground odds out for twenty-five days. This gave the firm almost a month to get enough action on either side so it could hang out more attractive odds in the latter stages of betting.

As an example, Fast Lane had 4 days of coverage and most of the favourites there were available at -11,000 by the time the markets closed.

Remember, sportsbooks have to balance pricing so as to get people betting on both sides of a market. The odds for some of the matches were going back-and-forth for weeks, so there it is reasonable to suggest that the company was comfortable with the lines it was putting out late on Sunday.

Were The Finishes Changed Last Minute?

Here's another one that is brought up whenever a dog doesn't cover. Late changes have occurred in the past, and it could be argued that the New Day's loss was changed on the fly. 

It's difficult to make a similar case for Bray Wyatt's win over Roman Reigns cannot be made as the general idea going around on Sunday was the match would be used as a set-up for Sting's involvement at SummerSlam. This is, of course, if the original plan was for Reigns to win the match and for there to be an attack by Luke Harper and Wyatt after the bell.

The Insiders Picked Their Spots

It's also possible that the insiders picked their spots and didn't bet on every match on the board. All it needs is one of the markets to change for regular punters to think the entire board has changed causing them to start backing favourites for the lines to get muddied. This has been something I have warned about in the past.

The criticism against this notion is that I can't prove otherwise this month because the swings weren't big enough to distinguish them from other bouts on the board.

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It isn't concrete proof for either side, but I hope what I've listed above is food for thought. 

All the main card favourites and underdogs switching roles in one fell swoop was incredible and I don't think we'll see something like that in the near future. If it were to occur again, I have last weekend's results to remind me.

In my next post, I'll take a look through the Battleground 2015 prop bets and look at what the winning picks were.