According to Dave Meltzer, Vince McMahon made the decision to go with the Raw Women's Championship as the proper main event sometime on Saturday night. Apparently, the original idea for the finish was for Sasha Banks to retain her title over Charlotte.
This contradicts the theory I came up with in the most recent post where I guessed that inside betting took place within the first two hours of the odds being published on Friday night.
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As you can see in the image above, the price for Charlotte winning the match opened at +550 but had been bet down to +150 within ninety minutes. Further to this, a Cesaro/Sheamus victory dropped into favouritism at around the same time, More obvious outcomes in Kevin Owens and Brian Kendrick wins were also backed.
After being backed at the early point, Charlotte's price did start drifting out. She was +240 yesterday morning and her price did start descending through Sunday. This does coincide with the time that Meltzer established when the decision was made for the title to change.
The final hours of betting can be viewed in the image below:
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It shows that Charlotte's price did have a few moments of interest, but - by showtime - the money was coming back in on Sasha.
Despite this new information about when the decision was made on the winner, I very much think the moves from Friday should not be disregarded. The pattern seems too coincidental to be a lucky guess by punters.
I agree it seems smart money is landing soon after markets go up. Which sucks because its also when a lot of fan money lands
ReplyDeleteIf it was smart money why insiders didnt back Charlotte harder?
ReplyDeleteit was +180 before the match ,a pretty good odds if you ask
One Q David ,on last No Mercy When 5dimes opened markets Ziggler was also back strongly right?
just to say thanks to Daves terrific cover of HIAC ,a good PPV for everyone I see .The over on Women and interference on KOvs SR were great picks.
As we've noticed recently, with with the markets going up late there's a mixture of smart and regular money coming in at the same time.
DeleteThanks!
Yep - you need to remember there was a lot of smart money landing on charlotte but then also a lot of fan money landing on Sasha. So although charlottes odds fell quite hard, the fan money on Sasha made it not fall as hard as would have expected
DeleteCouple of days have gone and looking with perspective we know smart money landed on Charlotte.Fact of the matter there was little people who had the security Charlotte was money(Eric,a guy by the name of Trallo(or sthg like that). ,one thing I ve le arnés from HIAC it is When a clear dog ,like Charlotte,is backed so strongly is why "they" have an info we dont.Any logical way of thinking leaded to a Sasha victory so theres no point on so tied odds between them.
ReplyDeleteAnother stuff was the C&S ,If I dont remember wrong,they were backed hard at same time Charlotte was,but their odds got around +300 on preshow,This case is tricky cause fans werenot so sold on the idea of them losing ,so I presume fan money wasnt so high on his rivals New Day,result was insiders got an awesome + 300 but they didnt take advantage of it,in This case you cant argue fan money leveled stuff cause This was a closer match up than Women one.
Another pretty important fact that people seem to undestimate are the pretty cosed odds many late PPVs matches got.Perkins vs Kendrick,Club vs E&C,New Day vs CS. are 3 good examples.
Question is why lately we got this When usual stuff was pretty unbalanced odds (-800,+600) or even worse on every single match.
Are fewer matches being leaked? Are fewer insiders or these insiders filtering info to less people?
Fact of things is the way smart money is behaving has changed completely and is harder to discover it.This is gonna be fun and would require going further to decipher what is real smart money and what's not.