How Kambi Will Grade Its Wrestling Observer Star Ratings Makets For AEW Revolution 2021

The most recent issue of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter includes Dave Meltzer's review of last weekend's AEW Revolution PPV. This now means that the oddsmakers from Kambi will settle the Observer star rating markets that were published for the show.

In this post, I'll point out how the markets will be graded. I'll start with the Over/Under star rating lines that were published for all but one of the matches on the card and then go over the head-to-head and prop specials that were available.

Over/Under Markets

Kambi had over/under markets for all but one of the bouts that were announced for the event. The match that didn't have a star rating line was the one for Sting and Darby Allin versus Brian Cage and Ricky Starks. This was due to the bout being post-produced (cinematic) and would not have been given a grade by Meltzer. This turned out to be the case as Meltzer did not give it a rating.

The lines, star ratings and results can be viewed in the table below. I've added asterisks next to five of the matches as they'll explain why and how they'll be graded.

*The Buy-In tag team market, which had a line of 2.75 Stars, will be settled as void because there was a change in the advertised line-up with Rebel replaced by Maki Itoh. 

** Kambi changed the line for the AEW Tag Team Championship match from Four Stars to 4.25 Stars. With Dave Meltzer grading the match four-and-a-quarter stars, the winning lines will be '4 Stars or More' and '4.25 Stars or More'.

*** Miro and Kip Sabian versus Best Friends initially had a line of 3.5 Stars, but it was lowered into 3.25 Stars. The bout received two-and-three-quarter stars in Meltzer's review. Therefore, the 'Under' for both lines will be the winning selections.

**** The Face of the Revolution ladder match had a line of 4.75 Stars to start off with, but - by the weekend of the event - Kambi had dropped it into 4.5 Stars. Meltzer graded it three-and-three-quarters, so both 'Under' options will be the winning selections

***** Dave Meltzer stated that Omega versus Moxley was four-and-a-half stars bell-to-bell and was 'the best match of this specific genre'. However, he went on to write that the post-match was a disaster. With four-and-a-half being graded for the match itself, Kambi will have two results. Initially, the line was set at five stars. Therefore, the winning selection - for that line - will be the 'Under 5 Stars'. The adjusted line was then placed at 4.5 Stars, so the next winning selection for the main event will be '4.5 Stars or More'.

Head-to-Heads

Kambi released four head-to-head markets for the PPV. In these markets, customers were asked to gamble which match - out of two selections - would earn the most stars in Dave Meltzer's review.

AEW Championship .vs. Any Other Match
The first head-to-head which was published had Kenny Omega versus Jon Moxley up against all of the other bouts on Sunday's card.

The AEW Championship match was available at 9/10, the option to punt on 'Any Other Match' was 11/10 and the choice to bet on there being a tie of some sort - 'Same Star Rating' - was 2/1.

As we know, the main event was the match of the night and thus will be the winning selection at the 9/10.

AEW Championship .vs. Face of the Revolution Ladder Match
It should go without saying that Omega versus Moxley beat the Face of the Revolution Ladder match in the second head-to-head that was created for the show.

The ladder match received three-and-three-quarters in the review, so it was three quarters short of levelling with the main event.

Both matches were available at EVENS while those who wanted to punt on both matches could have picked 'Same Star Rating' at 2s.

Casino Tag Team Royale .vs. Page/Hardy
The Casino Tag Team Royale was up against 'Hangman' Page versus Matt Hardy in the third head-to-head. Going by the betting, the customers liked the chance of Page/Hardy beating it as the selection fell from 19/20 into 17/20 by the morning of the event.

As a result, Kambi pushed 'Casino Tag Team Royale' up from 21/20 to 23/20 and increased the option of a tie from 2/1 to 41/20.

The winning selection turned out to be the Casino Tag Team Royale as its four stars beat Page versus Hardy by half a star.

AEW Tag Team Championship .vs. AEW Women's Championship
The final head-to-head saw the AEW Tag Team Championship match (Young Bucks .vs. Chris Jericho and MJF) compete against Hikaru Shida's AEW Women's Championship defence against Ryo Mizunami.

Taking a look at how the betting went, it appears as though the punters backed the tag team match to do better than the singles match because the odds for 'AEW Tag Team Championship' was lowered into 7/10 from 4/5 while the other options were increased.

The betting turned out to be on the correct side. The Bucks' win over Jericho and MJF received four-and-a-quarter stars, which was three quarters more than the AEW Women's Championship match was rated.

Prop Bets

Two proposition markets were published by Kambi for the PPV. In the first, customers were asked to gamble on the prospect of at least two matches receiving the highest amount of stars in Dave Meltzer's review. In the second, the prop asked whether the difference between the top match - or matches - and the next best would be half a star or more.

Joint Winners
With the main event being the sole contest to have the most amount of stars in the review for the PPV, the winning selection in the 'Joint Winners' prop will be 'No'.

As you can see above, the eventual winner started out as an 11/25 favourite. It was slightly pushed up to 4/9 when the 'Yes' was lowered into 6/4 from 8/5.

Margin of Victory: 0.5 Stars+

The 'Margin of Victory' prop will also be settled with 'No' as the winning selection.

That's because the next best match, behind Omega .vs. Moxley's four-and-a-half stars, was the AEW Tag Team Championship match which was given four-and-a-quarter.