McAfee's Big Gamble II

Last Super Bowl Sunday, I published THIS POST about WWE Smackdown commentator - Pat McAfee - and a a prop bet he had placed on the big game.

The former Indianapolis Colts punter had gambled $30,000 on the opening coin toss of Tampa Bay Buccaneers versus Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl being 'Tails'. I decided to look at the history of the coin flip results both overall, and in the State of Florida (where the Super Bowl was being hosted), and concluded that - with my findings - I would have opted to go with 'Heads'.

Luck was not on McAfee's side that day. The coin did indeed land on Heads.

This week, I had a look to see if McAfee was going to have another punt on the prop. I came across a video clip from his show in which he mentions that he had placed a stake of $40,000 once again on 'Tails'.

So, just like I did last year, I opened up the Super Bowl coin toss stats to see if history, and most importantly - luck, could be on McAfee's side this time around.

Here's what I found.

Out of the fifty-five Super Bowls, 'Tails' has landed twenty-nine times. That's 53% in favour of McAfee's pick.

Just like in 2021, I took note of the results in the State the game is being played in. This year, the venue is Inglewood, California. There have been eleven Super Bowls from the State. Of those games, 'Tails' has been the winner seven times giving it a 64% strike-rate.

That's another one siding with McAfee. 

However, if I were to narrow it down to Super Bowls hosted in Los Angeles County, then the result favours  'Heads' because four out of the seven games played in that area have won with 'Tails' only landing on 43% of those occasions.

Last year, the Tampa coin toss being 75% in favour of 'Heads' made me concerned that McAfee was onto a loser. 

I'm siding more with this year's gamble due to the overall and California results. Plus, recency - with the last ten Super Bowls seeing 'Tails' land six times - adds one more in favour of the gambler punter.