Sunday, 8 September 2019

More WWE/NXT/AEW TV Ratings Specials Published

In the most recent post, I mentioned that the oddsmakers from Kambi have published a proposition market for the upcoming edition of WWE Monday Night Raw where customers can place wagers on the audience number the USA Network gets for the episode. It wasn't the only ratings special that were released today.

The bookies have installed a handful of new markets for the 'Wrestling Ratings Wars' that will begin on the last day of September and into the first week of October.

Each market is titled, so - in this post - I'll go through each one individually and tell you what the requirements are.

Audience Total For The Week
In this market, the customers are asked to wager on the combined audience for WWE Raw (USA Network), NXT on USA, AEW on TNT and Smackdown's debut on FOX.
The line has been set at 8 Million. As of the time of writing, the odds for the total being 8 Million or more (Yes) is EVENS. A winning bet on below 8 Million - represented as 'No' on the website - will pay out at 7/10.

Conquering The Flagship
The 'Conquering the Flagship' proposition asks customers whether AEW's debut on TNT ends up having more viewers than the September 30th episode of Raw.
The 'No' is an 11/25 favourite while those who believe AEW's initial episode will beat Raw can find the 'Yes' at 8/5.

Conqueror Of Wednesday
The title of the 'Conqueror of Wednesday' writes itself. In it, customers have the option to bet whether or not AEW on TNT ends up having more viewers than the USA Network's NXT on October 2nd.
Those who believe AEW will be the 'Conqueror' on the night will find the 'Yes' at 11/20 while those looking to wager on NXT winning the first battle between the two Wednesday brands will find the 'No' at 5/4.

FOX Total Conquest
In the 'FOX Total Conquest' special, the bookies have set 'Smackdown (FOX) to have more viewers than combined viewers for AEW (TNT), Raw and NXT (USA Network).
'No' is a 2/5 favourite, while the 'Yes' is 7/4.

FOX .vs. USA Network
In the 'FOX .vs. USA Network' prop, the customers are wagering whether or not Smackdown's debut on FOX has more viewers than the 30th September episode of WWE Monday Night Raw and October 2nd NXT on USA Network.
Both 'Yes' and 'No' options are 17/20, so it's a pick 'em.

Over/Under: AEW (TNT)
There is an over/under special that has been created where customers can bet above or below Kambi's estimated line for the audience of AEW's debut on TNT.
The line is 1.25 Million. Those looking to bet on the show having 1.25 Million or more can find the 'Yes' option at 3/4. The option to wager on the episode not getting 1.25 Million or more represented as 'No' is 19/20.
The bookies had a somewhat similar market last month where clients had a choice of three options - 'Under 0.75 Million', '0.75 - 1.49 Million' or '1.5 Million or More'.

AEW Debut on TNT Betting Special From August 2019

As you can see above, the selection which covered 'Under 0.75 Million' fell from 11/10 into 3/4 between August 12th and 25th.
When the market was first installed, I noted that I had bet on the show getting 'Under 0.75 Million'  and gave reasoning for it. The main one: I didn't think AEW's social media numbers are good enough to covert to a strong US TV rating. I still believe this, so - if I thought 0.75 Million was too high - I consider 1.25 Million is far too generous.
With that said, it's worth pointing out that an AEW special aired on TNT on Friday August 30th to promote All Out and it had 390,000 viewers. The PPV preview wasn't advertised until a couple of days before it went to air and wasn't live, so that is a very good number. However, October 2nd will obviously have competition from a live WWE/NXT show.

Over/Under: NXT (USA Network)
Just like with the most recent Over/Under, the bookies have one for the October 2nd episode of NXT on USA Network. The line has been set at '1 Million or More'. Those looking to bet on the company getting 1,000,000+ will find the 'Yes' at 4/5 while the 'No' is 9/10.

Over/Under: Smackdown (FOX)
The Over/Under for Smackdown's debut on FOX - for October 4th - has a line of '3.5 Million or More'. The option to wager on the episode picking up less than that. 'No', is a 7/10 favourite while the 'Yes' is EVS.

Spread - AEW (TNT)
The 'Spread' special asks customers to wager whether they believe AEW's debut on TNT will have 0.35 Million more viewers than the October 2nd episode of NXT.
'No' is a 4/5 favourite while clients who believe that there will be a 350,000 or more gap between viewers can find the 'Yes' at 9/10.

Spread - Smackdown (FOX)
The 'Spread' market for the Smackdown debut on FOX asks the customers whether the show has '1.5 Million or more' viewers than the September 30th episode of WWE Monday Night Raw.
'No' is a 4/6 fave while the option to wager on Smackdown's FOX debut picking up 1.5 Million or more viewers than the red brand's show is 21/20. For what it's worth, the September 30th Raw will be competing with an AFC North rivalry game (Cincinnati at Pittsburgh) on NFL Monday Night Football.

The specials are categorised under 'TV Specials' on Kambi's Pro Wrestling Betting Pages.

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