In this post, I'll sort through each match in order, point out what the lines and odds were for each market and show how they were settled.
Six-Man
The trios match that kicked off the.. Kick Off.. was given two-and-a-quarter stars by the newsletter's editor.
Kambi's oddsmaker set the line at 2.50 Stars with the under at 7/10. The market stayed where it was over the three points that I tracked the odds.
The bookies had the right favourite here.
Cruiserweight Championship
Neville's regaining of the WWE Cruiserweight Championship over Akira Tozawa was put in the second-place spot of the pre-show.
The line was set at 3.75 stars. The betting evidently went the way of the 'Under' as it was snipped from 4/5 into 3/5 after two days.
The wagers were spot on as the match received three-and-a-half stars in the review.
WWE Smackdown Tag Team Championship
With The Usos versus The New Day having won the match of the night in Dave Meltzer's review of Battleground 2017 last month, I was interested to see how this one would fare especially since it was on the pre-show.
The Battleground match was given three-and-a-half stars. Sunday's did half a star better.
As you can see from the betting, the punters didn't think the teams would pull off better than last month. I can't really fault the bettors' logic because there were factors working against them. They managed to overcome the Kick Off hurdle and have one of the highly rated matches of the evening.
John Cena .vs. Baron Corbin
John Cena' victory over Baron Corbin was the first match of the main PPV broadcast. It received two stars by Meltzer.
The oddsmakers first put the line out at 3.25. Both the 'Over' and 'Under' options opened at 17/20. The betting evidently sided with the 'Under' as it had been backed into 11/20 by Sunday morning.
The customers eventually forced the traders to move the line down to 3.00 before the market was closed ahead of the match. This is a surefire sign that the 'Under' was being heavily backed.
WWE Smackdown Women's Championship
Natalya's WWE Smackdown Women's Championship victory over Naomi was rated three stars by the reviewer.
This one was a victory for the bookies.
The line was set at 2.75. The initial wagers came in on the 'Under' as it was cut from 17/20 into 4/5. The market remained that way the rest of the weekend.
Big Cass .vs. The Big Show
I was keen to see how the match between The Big Show and Big Cass would be graded because one of the recommended bets I suggested in the post where I looked through the markets was to take under 2 stars because I thought it had the potential to be, and I quote, 'a stinker'.
The oddsmaker evidently had low expectations as well as he had the 'Under' as a 7/10 favourite. By Sunday, the punters also thought it would be bad because they took less than two stars.
Meltzer gave the bout one single star.
Randy Orton .vs. Rusev
This match didn't last long enough. It was not given any stars, so the market should be voided.
For what it's worth, the line was set at 3 Stars. The 'Over' was backed at first as there was a flip by the following day. However, by Sunday night, the odds had reverted back to where they were when the market opened. Not that it means anything now.
WWE Raw Women's Championship
Sasha Banks' Raw Women's Championship victory over Alexa Bliss received - just like the other women's title match on the card - three stars.
The oddsmakers put the line up at 2.75. The over was 9/10 for the entire weekend.
Finn Balor .vs. Bray Wyatt
The line for Finn Balor's battle against Bray Wyatt was set at three-and-a-half stars. The customers expected it to go under.
They backed the under throughout the weekend, forcing the oddsmakers to slash it from 4/5 into 1/2 by Sunday night.
The clients were correct in their guesswork as Dave Meltzer gave the bout 2.75 stars.
WWE Raw Tag Team Championship
This was another match that I circled in the post I published on Saturday. The oddsmakers had set the line at 3.75 stars and I believed that there was a strong chance - based on the four men involved - that it would be rated highly.
My guess turned out accurate as the match was given four stars and came in joint-second in the market where customers could bet on the match that received the most stars on the night.
From the betting, myself and the others who backed the 'Over' - and forced the odds to be cut into 4/5 by Sunday morning - were obviously on the right side.
WWE US Championship
Kevin Owens' challenge for AJ Styles' WWE United States Championship ended up garnering three-and-three-quarter stars by the newsletter writer.
I had a feeling that, with it being SummerSlam, the pair would have pulled off, at least, a four star performance. They've had an average track record - when working together in singles matches - going in and, despite initially passing, I recommended a mild lean on '4 Stars or Over'.
The aforementioned track record meant that the bookies had the right call by putting 'Under 4 Stars' at 4/5 when they priced it up.
WWE World Championship
Jinder Mahal's successful defence of the WWE Championship against Shinsuke Nakamura was awarded two-and-a-half stars in the review.
The oddsmaker had the right favourite as the 'Under 3.25 Stars' was 4/5 while the '3.25 or Over' was 9/10.
WWE Universal Championship
Finally, the oddsmakers had a high bar for the main event. They set it at four-and-a-half stars.
They had the 'Under 4.50' as a 7/10 favourite to the '4.50 Stars or Over' but it was the latter that won out because the editor thought it was the match of the night. It received four-and-three-quarter stars, so anybody who backed the even money at any point during the weekend will be quids in today.
Well done to any of you who had a punt on these markets. Hopefully, there will be similar markets available for the next WWE PPV, No Mercy.
These markets were published on the websites that release WWE betting odds from the Kambi Group (Read This List). A few examples can be found below.
You should stop guessing the stupid smart money And just focus on time/stars bets!!!!
ReplyDeleteAwesome insight again!!!
Thanks. I always enjoy the prop markets. Hope they continue.
DeleteThe only worth Meltzer's ratings have at all for me is for these prop bets. So much fun! I'd say they should price up NJPW matches, but the over would have to be 1/100 every time!
ReplyDeleteI know you're on about star ratings props, but I'd love a company to put up New Japan odds even if it's just for the WrestleKingdom main event or an outright market for the G1.
DeleteI've asked firms in the past but it's a no go. I even did my own G1 ranking for one company this year to see if they'd run with it.
Can't believe Bovada has TripleMania Odds.
Wrestle Kingdom odds would be terrific. If Bovada can do TripleMania, which it seems like hasn't had buzz in years, there's no reason they can't do NJPW, especially with how hot the promotion has gotten online over the past few years. Maybe if/when they start to run more dedicated NJPW shows in the United States?
DeleteI think Bovada's decision to run with TripleMania is more to do with the company having opened up to Mexico earlier this year.
DeleteI didn't think of the NJPW US shows. They actually have a better shot of being done with the time difference and if the first night airs live like it did this year.