In today's post, I'll take a look back at previous odds to see when the best times were to place bets on Ambrose winning and cashing in the MITB contract. It's best to start with the most obvious market.
MITB Outright Winner
As we now know, Dean Ambrose was the 2016 winner of the Money in the Bank ladder match. A plethora of sportsbooks had published betting odds for the event. However, most of these firms released their lines in the weeks or days leading into the show. It was bwin.com that gets the thumbs up here as this firm installed prices for the outright winner back in mid-February.
I first mentioned that bwin had a market up in a post published on February 15th. At that point in proceedings, the Lunatic Fringe was 20/1. Figuring that Roman Reigns was going to be the WWE World Heavyweight Champion beyond WrestleMania 32, I placed a bet on him at the 20/1. However, as time went by, my opinion remained firm - I thought Kevin Owens, Bray Wyatt or even Chris Jericho had better chances of winning the briefcase as February turned to June. I ended up cashing out the bet on Thursday June 9th.
A Successful Cash-In
Another market that was available from a selection of other sportsbooks was one where clients could put their money on the cash-in being a success or not.
The option to wager on the cash-in being a success stayed at 1/5 for a lengthy period of time, but only started to see interest during the weekend of the show. By Sunday, the odds for a perfect execution of the contract had shortened to 1/10.
The other option, that being an unsuccessful result, went from 3/1 to 19/4.
Ambrose's cash-in was fruitful, so anyone who got the 1/5 or 1/10 would have been quids in on Monday morning.
A Cash-In During Money In The Bank
William Hill published a Money in the Bank prop bet shortly before the event began where customers could bet on there being a Money in the Bank cash-in at any time during the PPV. The odds - when I caught them - were 2/1.
Champion Against Which The MITB Briefcase Is Cashed In
As the title suggests, the oddsmakers were looking for customers to predict the WWE World Heavyweight Champion who would defend his title against the Money in the Bank winner.
I wrote about this market on June 3rd and my instinct went in favour of two names: Roman Reigns and John Cena.
There was a method behind the madness in selecting John Cena as I made a case for this year's MITB winner cashing in the title shot against the holder of a new world championship, if one is created following the draft.
This obviously did not come through. Nor did the Roman Reigns option.
The betting activity can be viewed in the table below. Pay close attention to the 'Seth Rollins' selection.
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| Champion To Oppose Money in the Bank Winner (2016) Odds |
On June 17th, the odds for Dean Ambrose to win the Money in the Bank briefcase fell overseas. The price for Roman Reigns to defeat Seth Rollins in the main event of Money in the Bank dropped at the same time, so the conclusion was made that both Ambrose and Reigns were winning their respective bouts two nights later.
It didn't work out that way, though. We saw Rollins' odds to win against Reigns plummet on Sunday. So, if anyone took a gamble on Seth Rollins facing the MITB winner early on Sunday, they would have made the best bet and gotten 2/1 for the effort.
Date Of Cash-In
I finish with another one of my favourite bets from this year's round of Money in the Bank betting. The oddsmakers at the websites listed on this link published a market where customers could predict when the 2016 Money in the Bank winner would cash-in his briefcase.
Upon hearing the news of Smackdown going live, a brand split and potentially a new WWE World Championship on the horizon, I was all over the cash-in being sooner rather than later.
I envisioned the cash-in occurring during an early episode of the new era of Smackdown. I wrote about it in a May 29th post titled 'MITB 2016 Betting: Looking To Cash In On A Cash-In' Shortly after publishing my thoughts, the odds started dropping as the table below shows:
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| How The Date Of Cash-In Odds Changed (Click Image To Expand) |
Even though the bet suggestion came in, I regard it a fluke as I did not foresee the contract being executed as early as later on in the show. With that said, a win is a win.
Most of the bookmakers covered in today's post have/had been taking bets on the upcoming draft, so I hope to go through the markets just like I have today and on Thursday
Good job!!
ReplyDeleteThank you, Eric.
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